2026 Forecast for Gasoline Vehicles
In 2025, sales of new energy vehicles reached 16.49 million units (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, but the growth rate slowed. Specifically:
Domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.48 million units (registration figures), with a significant decline in growth rate to only 16.17%. The "oil-to-electric" transition did not accelerate rapidly, and price reductions and promotions on gasoline vehicles attracted conservative consumers.
Exports of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year, reaching 2.615 million units.
2026 Forecast: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that new energy vehicle sales will reach 19 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; this report predicts that new energy passenger vehicle registrations will reach 14 million units, and the China Passenger Car Association predicts that new energy passenger vehicle retail sales will reach 14.6 million units.
There are two core driving forces: firstly, domestic consumers' "oil-to-electric" conversion, i.e., consumers switching from gasoline to new energy; secondly, an improved trade environment, leading new energy vehicle companies to increase their export efforts.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released a draft for public comment on the "Evaluation Methods and Indicators for Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles."
The draft mentions an indicator for vehicles weighing between 1.09 and 2.5 tons:
The target fuel consumption should be around 3.3 liters per 100 kilometers.
This document ultimately benefits new energy vehicles,
but is less favorable to gasoline-powered vehicles. It will force automakers to produce more electric vehicles,
but it won't be a blanket ban by 2026; not all gasoline-powered vehicles will be obsolete.
Therefore, those who bought gasoline-powered vehicles shouldn't panic; gasoline-powered vehicles are still an option.
However, the complete replacement of gasoline-powered vehicles by new energy vehicles is a gradual reality,
and that day is slowly approaching.
More importantly, new energy vehicles represent a different path than gasoline-powered vehicles.
