How to grasp the pace of the auto industry in 2023? Compared with the previous three years, external variables that will have a greater impact on the auto industry in 2023 include the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the withdrawal of subsidy policies. In this report, we decompose the key factors at the supply and demand ends of the development of the auto industry, and at the same time review the recovery level of supply and demand after the relaxation of epidemic control in foreign countries, so as to deduce the recovery path of the domestic and foreign auto industries in 2023.
(1)Restricting factors are unbundled, and the auto industry is expected to usher in a restoration of supply and demand after the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy. During the epidemic period, both the supply and demand ends of the domestic auto industry were squeezed, and production and sales were affected by unfavorable factors such as the decline in factory operating rates, stagnation in the import and export of complete vehicles and parts, and pessimistic revenue expectations.
(2)With the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy, the above unfavorable factors have been significantly improved, and the domestic auto industry is expected to usher in a recovery of supply and demand: 1) At present, most factory workers are in a healthy state, and the return to work rate is expected to return to normal after the year; 2) China's international auto industry Playing an important role in the industrial chain, the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policies will help ease the pressure on the international supply chain, and the industrial chain of the multinational auto industry will accelerate the restructuring; 3) The flow of people in business circles is recovering rapidly; 4) Central and local policies to boost the economy Introduced, residents' income expectations tend to be optimistic. my country's auto industry still has strong development momentum. With reference to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries, the supply and demand of the auto industry is expected to achieve a strong recovery after the optimization of epidemic prevention policies.
(2) The auto industry in developing countries such as India, Indonesia, and Malaysia is still in the growth stage, and the potential demand is relatively large. The strict control of the epidemic has lasted for a long time, resulting in a backlog of demand. After the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy, with the high self-sufficiency rate With the industry chain and sufficient labor force, both ends of supply and demand are rising simultaneously, and sales have recovered rapidly, surpassing pre-epidemic levels. my country's auto industry is moving from a growth stage to a mature stage, and the potential demand is relatively strong; my country has also implemented a relatively strict epidemic control policy for a long time, and it is expected that the backlog of demand will be released until consumption recovery is released; the upstream and downstream layout of the domestic auto industry industry chain is relatively complete. Conducive to supporting demand fulfillment.
